SC Bern vs EV Zug: High-flying Bulls challenging experienced SC Bern

{sitelinkxoff}Why Zug will finally win their second title

Let’s make this clear right away: SC Bern are the clear-cut favorites in the playoff-final against EV Zug. The defending champions have been the best team in the regular season, won three out of four games against Zug and have proven in this postseason yet again that they can raise their game when the stakes are high. Playoff-history also favors the Bears, who have won six out of nine series against the Bulls.

Nonetheless, there are good reasons that speak for a success of Zug. My case for them is based on three points, which I would like to elaborate in this blog. Firstly, this is the best, i.e. most consistent, complete, and effective, Zug we have seen since their last championship in 1998. What is more, they are peaking at the right time. After an unconvincing end to their regular season, they have been on a mission in the first two rounds. They thoroughly outplayed Genève-Servette HC – normally a very tough opponent in the playoffs – and were the better side against a strong HC Davos. Any team that eliminates Davos in a best-of-seven series has a good chance to beat any other team in the league. Yet, this is not only for the fact that Kreis’s team defeated them but for the manner in which they did it. Over the course of six games, they were more poised, defensively sound, and efficient than their adversaries. They found ways to win games, even though they faced lots of adversity. An example of their resilience can be seen in their reaction to the two losses. In both the fifth and the sixth game, they raised their game to decide the series in a convincing fashion.

Secondly, they managed to win eight playoff games – only for the second time in club history – even though their top-line hasn’t been at its best. Martschini is still waiting for his first goal of the post-season. His linemates, Holden and Suri, have played a very solid series on the defensive side against Davos, so it will just be a matter of time until they find the back of the net against SC Bern. Considering how effective the line of Klingberg-Immonen-Senteler has been in the last two games against Davos, and how McIntyre has dominated his opponents, it will be a very scary prospect for Bern, if Zug’s Topscorer starts to score. How can you stop a team that plays with four solid lines of which three can decide a game all by themselves? As deep as Bern’s team is, they won’t be able to deal with the three-headed monster.

Thirdly, while Bern won three encounters in the regular season that does not tell the whole story. Zug clearly outshot Bern in all three of them, but that domination did not translate to the scoresheet. There are three decisive factors that can be drawn from these games: The better goaltender, cold-bloodedness, and the first goal always guaranteed the win. Lately, all of these factors have been sources of strength for Zug. Tobias Stephan has played some of his best hockey and clearly stepped his already strong game up a few notches. While they have not always been the better side against Davos, Zug managed to get a goal even during a rough spell. See for example McIntyre’s series-clinching game-winner in game six, when Davos was putting Zug under heavy pressure. This quality was visibly lacking in the games against Bern, but if the playoffs are any indicator, Zug should not have a problem to find the back of the net this time around. Thirdly, only once did a team manage to score the equalizer in the regular season once they had been a goal down. So the first goal basically sealed the deal. The Bulls succeeded only once in doing so, but this has also changed in the postseason. Out of their ten games against Genève-Servette and Davos, they opened the score eight times. A fast start should therefore not be a case of concern (ironically enough, they have won both games, in which they conceded the first goal).

These are only a few convincing reasons why Zug will pull off an upset and take home the title for the first time in 19 years.

Why SC Bern will be the first team to defend its title since 2001

When it comes to any final, making a clear-cut argument as to who is going to come out on top is very difficult. The further you dig into the reasons why you might think one has the edge over the other at this stage, the more you are made aware of the similarities they share. This one isn’t any different.

But why will SC Bern hoist the trophy in the end?

First of all, EV Zug is most definitely on a roll. Their power play has been lethal at times and with McIntyre, EVZ has the stand-out player of the playoffs in their midst. To add to this, let’s have a quick look at the Bulls’ semifinal shooting percentage, a stat that is oftentimes associated not only with efficiency but also with the necessary luck in scoring. EVZ surged past HC Davos with a shooting percentage of 12,57%, the highest of the second round by far. There is nothing scarier than a good team on a hot streak in the playoffs. However, this premise isn’t too different from the beginning of the semifinals. SC Bern had to face a HC Lugano, who had just eliminated the ZSC Lions (shooting percentage of 10,45%) and surprised the Bears in the first game by scoring four goals on 27 shots for the away win. HC Lugano’s offensive magic was soon contained, though, and the Bianconeri left the championship without another win and a semifinal overall shooting percentage of 5,99%. Suddenly, EV Zug’s “efficiency” does not look as daunting as it did before. I believe that SC Bern has the experience and the means to wait for their chance to strike when it counts most once again, more so than EV Zug does in the end.

After this little numbers game to start us off, let’s turn the focus on the capital. Unlike Zug, SC Bern, didn't come into those playoffs all guns blazing. They had a tough and sometimes mistakes-ridden start against a tenacious EHC Biel. They could then step up their game to beat HC Lugano in the second round with a more compact performance. This team is now capable of rising to the new challenge in this final and against the quicker offense and much more mobile defense of the so far very impressive EV Zug. When talking about positive development, the same goes for the Bears’ first line of Rüfenacht – Arcobello – Moser. They – like EVZ’s top-trio – had a slow start to the postseason. But while Martschini still hasn’t scored, they were able to increase their impact on the game over the course of the playoffs and were a lot more dominant in the last few outings. SC Bern is closing in on playing their best hockey with the most important games right in front of their doorstep.

Last but definitely not least, this SCB-team knows how to win a championship. More than half the team has already been part of SC Bern's squad last season and knows first-hand how one wins a title in the capital. However, it doesn't stop at this. Eight members of this year's roster are multiple time Swiss champions. Captain Martin Plüss leads the pack with five NLA titles (three with SC Bern). EV Zug, for the first time in the final since 1998, on the other hand, has just four players on their roster, who have already won a title in a pro-league, three of them in the NLA (Grossmann 2x, Helbling, Senteler). EVZ is vastly inexperienced when it comes to playing for a championship, the whole roster has as many NLA titles amongst them as Beat Gerber and David Jobin have each won with SC Bern so far and those veterans aren’t done by a long-shot. The Bears will not be rattled or intimidated by the big stage and the high stakes an NLA-final provides. They have been there and they know how to stay focused on the ultimate goal.

In the end, all of this seems more than circumstantial. We can look forward to a contested series where both teams have the skills and means to get the necessary timely goals and lucky bounces on their side. The playoffs are about catching a wave and riding it out until the very end. Whoever stays on it longer, will win the title. And this isn't SC Bern's first rodeo.